Hokit vs. Gane at UFC 334: Why the Odds Are Wrong, and What It Means for His Leaf Smack Talk Auto

On Saturday 14 November 2026, Josh Hokit (10-0) headlines UFC 334 at Madison Square Garden against Ciryl Gane (14-2, 1 NC), with the heavyweight title on the line after Tom Aspinall vacated it in September. Hokit turns 29 two days before the fight. Gane is 36.

The sportsbooks have Hokit as a clear underdog. We think he wins this fight about 60% of the time. Below is the case for that number, then a look at what the fight means for one of the few manufacturer-issued Hokit autographs on the market: his 2026 Leaf Metal Smack Talk autograph, “Live Reaction” variation.

The line

Lines as reported by Forbes and DraftKings Network. The two implied figures add up to more than 100% because the book takes a margin. The stats model at mmamodel.ai puts Hokit at 36%, which is already well above where the market has him.

Since the open, the money has moved toward Gane, mostly because of his knockout of Alex Pereira at UFC Freedom 250. Pereira fought him standing up the whole time, so that result tells us very little about what happens against a wrestler.

Why Hokit wins 60% of the time

1. Both of Gane's losses came against men who took him down

Gane's only two losses came in title fights. Francis Ngannou beat him on the cards at UFC 270 by wrestling in the later rounds. Jon Jones finished him with a first-round guillotine at UFC 285 that started with a takedown. Kickboxers haven't beaten Gane. Both men who did beat him put him on the mat. His career takedown defence is about 47%, with 9 of 17 attempts against him landing.

2. Hokit is the best wrestler Gane has faced since Jones

Hokit was a wrestling All-American at Fresno State and finished third in the nation as a high-school senior. He also played college football well enough to sign with the 49ers. He brings heavyweight wrestling with real speed behind it. In the UFC he lands about 1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and stops 78% of the takedowns tried against him, including Curtis Blaydes's.

“The potential of rag-dolling Ciryl Gane, for sure, Cain Velasquez style.” — Chris Weidman on Hokit

Even Michael Bisping, who leans Gane, put it plainly: “Josh Hokit is going to wrestle Ciryl Gane – that's just a fact.”

3. The pace is a weapon

Hokit lands about 10.3 significant strikes per minute, nearly double Gane's 5.4. He and Blaydes combined for 354 significant strikes at UFC 327, a record for a three-round heavyweight fight, and Hokit won all three cards 29-28. Gane wins by moving, staying at range and choosing his shots, and that style uses a lot of energy. A 28-year-old who keeps walking forward and keeps shooting for takedowns will make a 36-year-old work for every second of five rounds.

4. He has already shown he can take a beating and win

Blaydes actually landed more significant strikes than Hokit, 177 to 174. Hokit took that from a top-five heavyweight and still got the decision. In his next fight he stopped Derrick Lewis, the UFC's all-time knockout leader, in the second round. Nine of his ten professional wins have come by finish.

5. The market is pricing in the persona, not just the fighter

Hokit's post-fight interviews have been publicly criticised by Dana White and by a large part of the fanbase. When a fighter is widely disliked, the public tends to bet against him, and lines move further than the matchup alone would justify. He also has only four UFC fights, and a short record tends to get priced as a weaker one. He was a -275 favourite over Lewis and finished him, and he has now beaten two top heavyweights in a row.

The case against

• Reach and technique. Gane is 6'4" with an 81" reach. Hokit is 6'1" with a 73" reach. Gane absorbs about 2.3 significant strikes per minute. Hokit absorbs about 6.1.
• Five rounds. Hokit has never fought past the third round. Gane has gone 25 minutes.
• Improved defence. Bisping notes that Gane's takedown defence has improved since the Jones fight, and that Aspinall couldn't take him down in the first round of their bout.
• Openings. Hokit's forward pressure leaves gaps, and a precise counter-striker can make him pay for them.

This is our analysis, not betting advice.

The card: 2026 Leaf Metal Smack Talk Autograph, “Live Reaction”

Is it his rookie?

Under the archive's definition, no. Our Josh Hokit page records that no UFC-licensed Hokit card has been documented, and that he appears on none of the Topps UFC or Panini checklists from 2024 to 2026. Until Topps prints him, he has no RC.

What the Leaf card does give collectors is the next best thing: a first-year autograph from an established card manufacturer, issued before his first title shot. We file the “Live Reaction” card as a variation of that first-year Leaf Smack Talk autograph, and it is the most distinctive version of it. It is a different kind of item from the Spector Sports Art “Immortal Moments” pieces, which are art collectibles even when sellers list them with rookie wording.

Where the market is now

One sale and one active listing isn't much data. Treat these as reference points, not established values.

How UFC 334 moves the card

If Hokit wins

• An 11-0 heavyweight champion at 29, crowned at the Garden. The hobby hasn't had a heavyweight story like that in years, and there are very few Hokit autographs to meet the demand.
• Topps comes in. A title win is exactly the kind of moment that gets a Topps Now card made and a fighter added to future checklists. That would give Hokit his first licensed card. A licensed RC would become the main chase, but it also lifts the whole Hokit market, and the Leaf card would stay the earlier, pre-title autograph.
• The “Live Reaction” tie-in. The Freedom 250 inset is a hook that holds whatever happens. A title win makes it stand out even more.
• Direction: sharply up, with a spike right after the fight. Sellers should list in fight week or the morning after, not a month later.

If Hokit loses

• The speculative premium goes quickly. Expect /99 autographs to drift back toward the roughly $75 sold comp, or below it.
• A close five-round loss hurts the card far less than an early knockout. At 29 and 10-1, he would still be a contender with a path to a rematch, and his persona keeps people watching.
• Licensed product becomes less likely to arrive quickly, so the Leaf card stays his main autograph for longer. That helps hold up the floor.

Sources

• Next-FightJosh Hokit next fight: vs Ciryl Gane, UFC 334, 14 November 2026
• ForbesUFC 334 Main Event: Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit Opening Betting Odds
• DraftKings NetworkOpening odds for Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit at UFC 334
• mmamodel.aiCiryl Gane vs Josh Hokit
• NY FightsChris Weidman Reveals Cain Velasquez Blueprint for Josh Hokit to Upset Ciryl Gane at UFC 334
• HeavyMichael Bisping Breaks Down Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit
• CBS SportsUFC 327 results: Josh Hokit outduels Curtis Blaydes
• CBS SportsUFC Freedom 250: Josh Hokit a potential rising star
• WikipediaJosh Hokit
• eBayJosh Hokit 2026 Leaf Smack Talk Auto #/99 Silver #ST-JH1 (sold)
• eBay2026 Leaf UFC Josh Hokit Smack Talk White House 1st Auto 250th Anniversary /99
• Spector Sports ArtImmortal Moments Josh Hokit autograph collectible