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Working pick#16
Rookie research

Tony Ferguson
Rookie Card Case

The candidates, the evidence for each, and which card FightCardboard treats as the working pick.

  • Working pick2011 Topps UFC Moment of Truth #16
  • SubjectTony Ferguson
  • Year2011
  • ManufacturerTopps
  • ConfidenceHigh confidence
  • Print runUnknown — not estimated
Verified×1High confidence×1Uncertain×1View sources & research

Why this is the working pick

2011 Topps UFC Moment of Truth #16 is both his first card and the card the market treats as his rookie. Topps' own Ripped article names '2011 Topps UFC Moment of Truth #16' as his rookie card, and Beckett's marketplace lists the card as '2011 Topps UFC Moment of Truth #16 Tony Ferguson RC'. The timing fits cleanly: he won TUF 13 on 4 June 2011 and Moment of Truth shipped 30 November 2011, the first Topps UFC product to include him. The two 2011 products that came earlier do not carry him — the 2011 Topps UFC Title Shot set list (released 4 May 2011, before his Octagon debut) and the 2011 Finest UFC set list both returned no Ferguson entry. The one dissenting data point is SportsCardsPro, whose rookie field for #16 reads 'No'; it reads 'No' for every later Ferguson card too, so it appears to be a blanket absence of rookie flags in its UFC data rather than a judgement against #16.

Ferguson's first trading card, from the 220-card Moment of Truth base set released 30 November 2011 — the first Topps UFC product issued after he won The Ultimate Fighter 13 on 4 June 2011. Neither 2011 Topps UFC Title Shot (4 May 2011) nor 2011 Finest UFC carries him, so nothing earlier exists. It is also his only rookie-year card: he is not in the product's 70-card Certified Signatures checklist, so no 2011 certified autograph of him was issued.

The dispute

Whether the card carries a formal RC designation. Topps' Ripped article and Beckett's marketplace listing both label 2011 Topps UFC Moment of Truth #16 a rookie card, while SportsCardsPro's 'Is Rookie Card' field for it reads 'No' and Cardboard Connection's checklist marks no RC flags anywhere in the set. TCDB, the usual RC-flag source, could not be consulted, so the flag could not be checked there.

Commonly misidentified

A seller listing of the rookie records its number as #194; every checklist source says #16. Sellers also list the Gold, Onyx /188 and Ruby /8 versions of #16 as 'the rookie' when they are parallels of the same base card, and 2012 Finest UFC #41 is sometimes titled 'RC' because it is his first chrome card.

Identifying it

  • Base card #16 in a 220-card checklist numbered #1–#220
  • Released 30 November 2011, the Moment of Truth design (Topps' late-2011 UFC flagship)
  • One parallel per pack: Gold (unnumbered), Onyx /188, Ruby /8, Diamond 1/1, plus 1/1 printing plates
  • Shows him post-TUF 13, before his second UFC fight

Parallels

Base
—
Unnumbered
Gold
—
High confidence
Onyx
/188
High confidence
Ruby
/8
High confidence
Diamond
1/1
High confidence
Printing Plate
1/1
High confidence

Grading & population

Population figures will be taken directly from the grading companies and dated when they are. None are shown yet.

Sources & research Verified×1High confidence×1Uncertain×1

Every factual claim on this page, the evidence behind it, and an honest confidence level. Where sources disagree the disagreement is kept, not quietly resolved.

High confidence

Tony Ferguson's rookie card: 2011 Topps UFC Moment of Truth #16 — Tony Ferguson.

2011 Topps UFC Moment of Truth #16 is both his first card and the card the market treats as his rookie. Topps' own Ripped article names '2011 Topps UFC Moment of Truth #16' as his rookie card, and Beckett's marketplace lists the card as '2011 Topps UFC Moment of Truth #16 Tony Ferguson RC'. The timing fits cleanly: he won TUF 13 on 4 June 2011 and Moment of Truth shipped 30 November 2011, the first Topps UFC product to include him. The two 2011 products that came earlier do not carry him — the 2011 Topps UFC Title Shot set list (released 4 May 2011, before his Octagon debut) and the 2011 Finest UFC set list both returned no Ferguson entry. The one dissenting data point is SportsCardsPro, whose rookie field for #16 reads 'No'; it reads 'No' for every later Ferguson card too, so it appears to be a blanket absence of rookie flags in its UFC data rather than a judgement against #16.

Verified

2011 Topps UFC Moment of Truth #16 — Tony Ferguson.

Uncertain

One eBay listing sold as his 'Rookie Card RC' records the number as #194 in its item specifics; no checklist source supports #194. Rookie designation itself is disputed — see the rookie block.

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